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2020.01.10 15:19 ScottRevereSanta Anita Friday January 10th Analysis
Welcome to Santa Anita! We had an outstanding beginning to kick off the meet last Friday, as our top selections went 3 of 9 including a$52.00 winnerin the last race! Our longshot of the day in race 8 ran 2ndat odds of 20-1, setting up for some excellent exacta and DD payouts! While the top pick got home in 3 of 9 races, playing all of the A horses would have given you 8 of 9 winners, with the sole loser being the race where I tried to single and my only B horse ended up winning. The bar has been set pretty high, so let’s keep the good times rolling this weekend! 2020WinterSanta Anita StatisticsLast Week:33%(3/9win,8/9ITM),$6.82ROI per $2 win bet($18wagered, $61.40returned)Santa AnitaWinter2020:33%(3/9 win, 8/9 ITM),$6.82ROI per $2 win bet($18 wagered, $61.40 returned) Race 1: [F]Mdn55k 5½ Furlongs (T) Picks:1,2 / 5 Despite conventional wisdom and historical trends, the 5.5-furlong turf sprints at Santa Anita have not played very kindly to speed lately, quite a change from the downhill 6.5-furlong races we used to see. None of the 8 turf sprints this meet have been won wire-to-wire, and the winner was on average 2.5-3 lengths off the pace at the first call. That does not bode well for early favorite #7Raneem. This Baffert trained filly is still a maiden after 6 starts, and it truly feels like the barn isn’t sure what to do with her at this point. They’ve tried dirt, then turf, and now back to turf; she debuted with blinkers, the hood came off after 2 races, and now she adds blinkers once again. There is a spotty race record with layoffs in between, and she wheels back on less than 10 days of rest, a move almost unheard of for the Baffert barn. There are enough question marks against her that I will be fading this favorite on a day where fields are short and prices might be hard to find. #1 Malibu Cat is my top selection. She ran a speed figure in her debut as a 2-year-old that would already make her competitive in this race, and she now makes her first start as a four-year-old off of an 11-month layoff. She appears to be working lights-out in the mornings, and Glatt is an average 13% with horses off 90+ day layoffs. Turf ace Prat climbs aboard, and I’m hopeful he will elect to rate her rather than send hard from the rail. With the right trip she is the one to beat. #2 Dance Costume is the lone debut runner in the field today. Mixed signals on the pedigree, as Union Rags offspring typically fare poorly on grass (3% first time turf winners) but the dam was a stakes winner sprinting on turf and has already produced 3 turf winners from 4 starters. Yakteen has strong numbers with debut turf runners, getting 29% winners over the past 3 years with a strong $5.47 ROI. Rosario sees fit to take the mount, which is always encouraging. #5 Lavender is the wildcard of the field. This lightly raced filly has run second in both of her starts to date in Ireland, and that was against fields of 14 and 15 horses, so she certainly won’t be intimidated by today’s group of 7. The major questions are that she hasn’t been seen for 15 months, and Matthew Chew has a terrible 0/40 record with horses coming off of 90+ day layoffs. If she’s fit she could surprise, but I’m inclined to watch one first. Race 2:[F]Clm16000n3L 6½ Furlongs Picks: 2 / 4,1 #2Busy Paynter appears to be the one to beat in the second race of the day. She dueled between horses last out against much better at Del Mar to finish a respectable fourth, beaten less than 2 lengths when in for open claiming company at $32,000. She gets a drop into nonwinners of 3 lifetime company and projects to be the one to catch on the front end. The #6 Winsinfashion is the other logical speed, but I believe Busy Paynter is quicker and classier and should be able to draw off late. #4 Leading Indicator is one of a few horses who will likely try to sit a stalking trip a length or two off the pace and make a move into the turn. Dean Pederson is a smaller barn, but he spots his horses well given his 24% strike rate throughout 2019. Toss the turf try where she didn’t care for the surface, and this looks like a 4-year-old who is peaking and heading the right direction in her form cycle while stepping up a bit in class. #1 Cimarron has been quite a hot commodity lately, having been through a number of decent barns across the country throughout 2019. She appeared to be inching forward late in 2019 but has since disappeared ever since the October race. She has a knack for breaking slowly, as she’s been “off slow” or “bobbled start” in her last 4 races, and missing the break is often even more detrimental for sprinters as she cuts back to 6.5 furlongs. She isn’t one I feel strongly about, but I struggle to find anyone I like beyond the top two picks in this spot. Race 3:[F}OC 40000n1x 1 Mile Picks:1,4 /2 Race 3 brings us a small but interesting field of older fillies and mares going a mile on the main track. This race is a unique handicapping puzzle as 4 of the 5 runners are listed as early/presser types, with the last runner an early speed need-the-lead sort. This race could very well set up with a nuclear pace up front, or if all the jockeys elect to rate we could see one horse steal it on the lead. That said, #1 Persepolis is the top selection. This lightly raced mare is 5-years-old but only raced 5 times, giving her every right to improve today. Expectations were clearly high for this one, as she sold for over $500k with a gorgeous turf pedigree and was sent to the Chad Brown barn. Pedigree aside, she appears to be better over the dirt, as she owns a win and two places in her 3 starts on the main track. She has early speed, but she also does not need the lead which gives Prat options in the irons. Her speed figures stack up favorably against most of this field, and her last try at a route was deceptively strong, as the winner freaked that day but Persepolis was still over 4 lengths clear of the show horse when sent off at odds of 4/5. The lukewarm top choice in a surprisingly tricky field. #4Amatara is an interesting player here and a major threat in an open race. While her form may appear inconsistent at first, you’ll notice both of her poorer efforts lately came at Los Alamitos, a unique bull ring track with tight turns that some horses struggle to handle. She was also 3-wide for the majority of the race in her last effort on a day when Los Al received an unusual amount of rain during the day, forcing them to seal the track midway through the card. If you forgive that effort, her lone start at Santa Anita produced a monstrous race when she destroyed an overmatched maiden field when routing for the first time. A return to form of her maiden score likely puts her in the winner’s circle again today. #2 Velvet Queen is the slight morning line favorite in this field, and she is one that I will likely use somewhere but ideally want to beat. She got away with a slow pace last out when trying dirt for the first time, and she managed to hold on late to win in a starter allowance field. She now has to tackle two turns on the dirt for the first time, and there’s enough other speed in here to keep her honest. However, we truly haven’t seen just how good she might be over the main track, and she has enough early speed to burn early if the rider chooses. A defensive use. Race 4:MC 50000 6½ Furlongs Picks:5,2 / 8 / 1,4 In what appears to be a continuation of short priced winners, I’m forced to take #5 Benny Chang on top in race 4. Peter Miller and Joel Rosario are perennially overbet on the west coast, but when they are winning at 38% together it makes them an awful dangerous combination to fade, regardless of the price. This son of Cross Traffic was a little wide when contesting an honest pace last out, and of the 3 horses fighting for the lead he was by far the best of the speeds, as the other leaders tired to finish 5th and 6th, including the 6/5 favorite. He has to negotiate an extra furlong today, but there doesn’t appear to be any other speeds entered today who can keep up with him on the front end. #2 Palace Prince is an interesting contender. This colt showed promise early, running third to Wrecking Crew and Tizamagician, both of whom are Derby hopefuls. Things haven’t gone quite as planned on the stretch out though, as he regressed significantly in his next 2 efforts when trying two turns. I think the cutback to sprinting distances, coupled with the barn switch, class drop, and first start as a gelding, can make this horse a contender in a bit of a weak field. No published works since December 20th is concerning, but Glatt has good numbers off of medium layoffs and I trust this one still has enough ability to get the job done. #8 Big Hoof Dynamite catches my attention purely due to the fact that top west coast jockey Prat climbs aboard for a relatively unknown trainer in Jay Nehf. I always take notice when top jockeys get up for small barns, and I have to think this horse is live for Prat to take the mount. There doesn’t appear to be any world-beaters in this spot, so this one doesn’t seem completely overmatched on speed figures if the trip fits. Race 5:[F][S]MC 50000 6 Furlongs Picks: 6,5 / / 3,7 Race 5 is a tough race, as I don’t like the early favorite but none of the first-time starters are very impressive either. While I'm not throwing the favorite out complete, I am going to use a different horse on top. Before getting into the rest of the field, let’s look at the early favorite, #5 Rickie Nine Toe’s. He ran a surprisingly strong race in debut going 5.5 furlongs at the generous price of 17-1, then looked every bit a winner in his next race when bet down to 4/5 favoritism only to get caught late by a 54-1 first time starter and ultimately fade to third. Note that race was at 6 furlongs and at maiden 30k vs the maiden 50k he faces today. Periban has poor stats with 1st off the claim (1/27) as well as first time blinkers (0/11). Factor in Bejarano’s cold start to the meet (0/20) and possible stamina issues, and this is a favorite who will be a short price and very vulnerable. My top selection is the #6Nikkileaks. Nikkileaks got a solid education in her debut, taking dirt and passing a few horses to get up for a nonthreatening third late. She flashed speed in her next race, contesting the pace before tiring late. I’m not sure there is a ton of quality in this field, and the addition of blinkers and jockey change to Maldonado signal to me that Glatt wants this horse to show more speed and will have her winging it early. Glatt is 20% with first time blinkers and does well with horses on moderate layoffs, so I think this one could get loose early and prove tough to run down. If Nikkileaks and Rickie Nine Toe’s go toe-to-toe on the lead, I’m interested in #3 H and R’s Girl to come running late. This one doesn’t seem to have much early speed in the AM, but she’s by precocious California sire Smiling Tiger (15% winners first out), out of Sassy Synner, who has already produced 10 winners from 12 starters, including 3 stakes winners. Don’t sleep on Rispoli Umberto, as this Italian invader has already proven he has talent when scoring a mild upset with a brilliant ride on Hootie in the nightcap last Sunday. #7 Smart Girl is the other half of the Krujac pair, and note that Efrain rides for Krujac occasionally and he lands here vs on H and R’s Girl. It sounds as if this one has been slightly outworking H and R’s Girl in the mornings, so she could be another with a shot in a race with bad favorites. Race 6:[F]Clm 32000 5½ Furlongs (T) Picks:4 / 2,5 / 6 #4Drift Away is the top selection in this turf sprint. We have already covered the developing track trends for turf sprints favoring late runners, so I’m looking for a horse with strong closing ability. There appears to be enough speed in here to keep the pace honest, and I think Drift Away is far and away the best closer in this field. She has won at this distance and over this surface before, and Andrew Lerner is a gaudy 44% when sending out horses second off the layoff. Toss the last race as it was on the wrong surface, and this mare has been competitive at and above the level she finds herself at today. #5 Bako Sweets is the second pick. While this 7-year-old mare has done her best work over the synthetic surface up north, she hasn’t embarrassed herself by any stretch while racing over the lawn. She was a decent fourth two-back when making her first start for Blake Heap off the heels of a 10-month layoff, and her last race was on dirt where she has never been at her best. Despite speed not holding particularly well so far, this one has better than average turn-time and should threaten early if she can improve at all from that October 18th effort. #2 Swirling is one who may get overlooked due to the barn change to low percentage trainer Perez, but don’t be too quick to throw her out. She is another who could sit a good stalking trip behind likely pacesetter Classy Atlantic, and her first race for the Perez barn was every bit as strong as her races for Sadler. Once again, ignore the clunker on the wrong surface in a race where she was in over her head and she could surprise at a generous price. Race 7:OC 62500n2x 6½ Furlongs Picks:1 / 4,5 Race 7 leads me to a top pick that I would normally fade in most situations, #1McKale. I am a firm believer in fading the non-superstar Baffert horses; those that don’t break their maiden in the first two tries, and generally whatever he sends out on the turf that didn’t debut on grass. This horse struggled mightily at n1x company for an extended period before being overmatched against graded stakes type Flagstaff and then flopping at the 3/2 favorite in September. However, the main reason I’m using him prominently here is the fact that he appears to be textbook lone speed. There is nobody in this field who can go with him early, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was able to open up a multiple length lead by the first call. He hasn’t turned into the superstar we’ve come to expect from Baffert, but you still cannot afford to ignore a lone speed horse with a rail draw getting the best connections on the west coast, as Drayden and Baffert are clipping along at 54% together from 28 mounts. I’m hoping the layoff gave him a much-needed rest and he will come out sharp today. #4 Manhattan Up comes in with more back class than most of this field, as he spent most of his three-year-old season running against the likes of Mucho Gusto, Roadster (the good version), Extra Hope, Nolo Contesto, and other highly regarded colts. He ran decently in his two turf tries, but I think dirt is definitely his best game. If McKale is unable to take them all the way, Manhattan Up is the one I like most to run them down. #5 Royal Trump is another who makes sense in this spot, and his last race was super impressive when tracking a slow pace to explode late for the upset at 34-1. However, that effort represents a career best for him, and it’s fair to question if he is likely to repeat such a performance while moving up in class. Glatt clearly has this one sharp right now, but if you missed the coming out party at 34-1 against weaker it’s a little tough to love him here at 2-1. Race 8:[F][S]Mdn55k 5½ Furlongs (T) Picks: 2,7,10 // 3,6,8 The final race of the day is a bit of an oddly carded affair, as we get a field of only 8 with 5 also-eligibles waiting to draw in. #2 BellaVita appears to be the most interesting of all the first-time-starters. This miss turned heads at the Ocala Breeder’s Sale in April when Kaleem Shah purchased her for $400k. Freshman sire Bayern is turning out to be quite a prolific turf influence, as he is getting 16% first time turf winners in his first crop. There is plenty of turf pedigree on bottom as well, as the dam was a black type stakes winner on turf and synthetic and is by strong turf influence Storm Cat. Watch the tote to check for action in this race, but I wouldn’t be surprised if her 7/2 morning line is more like 9/5 at post. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Reddam Racing Square Eddie homebreds sprinting on turf with Doug O’Neill and Mario Guitierrez are almost always dangerous. #7 Kissable U’s best effort came when sprinting on the turf against open company, and she now drops back into state-bred restricted company at her preferred distance and back on the grass. She is a major player in a wide-open race. Longshot of the day #10 Too Much Smoke is the AE who seems the biggest threat. While 5-1 may not scream longshot, I don’t believe we are going to see many double-digit odds winners today, so settling on a 5-1 horse as the 4th choice in an 8-horse field is as close as I can get. We already covered how dangerous Miller is at Santa Anita, and you can toss the debut effort where she missed the break and never picked up her feet on the dirt. She has a number of classy half-siblings, including graded stakes turf winner Marckie’s Water and promising allowance winner Opus Won. She will need to find a way to save a bit of ground, but I would expect a much better performance from her today than what we saw in the debut. I absolutely love Clubhouse Ride offspring debuting on turf, as this son of Candy Ride is producing first time turf winners at over 20% so far, so #3 Warren’s Empress is worth a look. While the connections haven’t had the strongest numbers at this meet or with debut runners, I’m willing to be forgiving when I’m getting 10-1 or better with excellent turf pedigree. Note that Velez’s lone win at Santa Anita so far this meet (via DQ) came aboard a Craig Lewis trainer horse, at incredible odds of 46-1. Worth a flier at a price
On October 31, 2019, at 1130 eastern daylight time, a Beechcraft BE-58, N959CM, was destroyed after it impacted a vehicle and terrain shortly after takeoff from Ocala International Airport-Jim Taylor Field (OCF), Ocala, Florida. The private pilot and a passenger were fatally injured; one occupant in the vehicle was seriously injured. The airplane was owned and operated by the pilot as a Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91 post-maintenance test flight. Visual meteorological conditions prevailed, and no flight plan was filed for the local flight that departed OCF at 1128. According to witnesses, the pilot and a passenger intended to fly a multi-leg cross-country flight to Yuba County Airport (MYV), Marysville, California, and they flew from Punta Gorda Airport (PGD), Punta Gorda, Florida to OCF the day before the accident. The passenger reported that during the flight to OCF the right engine fuel flow meter consistently fluctuated from zero to high; however, the engine's performance and all other indications appeared normal. An airframe and powerplant mechanic at OCF examined the airplane and subsequently removed the fuel flow transducer from both engines and reinstalled them on the opposing engine to determine if there was an instrument indication problem or an actual fuel flow issue. The pilot and mechanic performed several post-maintenance engine run-ups with no apparent anomalies and then intended to conduct a test flight. At 1111, an airport security camera recorded the airplane on the ramp in front of a hangar next to the fuel farm with both engines operating. The airplane then taxied to runway 18. About 1128, the airplane departed runway 18, turned left and exited the camera view as it flew in an easterly direction. The OCF air traffic controller reported the airplane appeared lower and slower than expected, and that he had instructed the pilot to proceed westbound. The controller queried the pilot regarding the airplane's heading, the pilot responded they were heading to the west as instructed, and the controller advised that the airplane was flying eastbound. The controller instructed the pilot to proceed westbound. The airplane continued to fly to the east and the pilot advised the controller that they needed to return to the airport. No additional details for the reason of their request to return to the airport was communicated and no emergency was declared. Several witnesses near the accident site reported that the airplane was flying southeast at a lower altitude than normal. The airplane continued a "shallow" left turn to the north, towards OCF. The airplane's wings were wobbling after it completed the turn north, then it leveled off briefly before "nose diving" towards the ground where it impacted a six-lane asphalt highway and struck two vehicles before coming to rest. Additional witnesses reported that the airplane was spinning to the left as it descended. Video recovered from a nearby vehicle equipped with a camera showed the airplane approach from the southeast in a left spinning descent as it impacted the highway. The airplane stuck the road in a nose and right wing low attitude. During the impact, the fuselage struck a vehicle that was travelling in the westbound lanes. The airplane then skidded across the eastbound lanes, struck a concrete curb, then spun around towards the south as it exploded and became engulfed in flames. The airplane came to rest in a vacant lot, about 2 miles from the approach end of runway 18. The pilot held a private pilot certificate with ratings for airplane multiengine land, airplane single engine land, airplane single engine sea, instrument airplane. According to the pilot's logbook, the pilot had accumulated about 7,800 hours of total flight experience and completed a flight review on October 4, 2019. On February 19, 2019, he was issued a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) third class medical certificate with a limitation; must wear corrective lenses. According to FAA airworthiness records, the airplane was issued a standard airworthiness certificate in the normal category on September 5, 1996. The airplane was an all-metal, six-seat, multiengine airplane equipped with two Continental IO-550-C31B, 300-horsepower engines that each drove a McCauley 3-blade constant-speed propeller. At 1140, the weather conditions reported at OCF included clear sky, wind from 200 at 7 knots, visibility 10 statute miles, few clouds at 2,200 ft, temperature 29C, dew point 24C, and an altimeter setting was 30.06 inches of mercury. The first impact site on the highway exhibited a complete imprint of the airplane that consisted of gouges and scrapes that formed an outline of the nose, left and right wings, left and right engines, fuselage and empennage. The right engine impact point showed the outline of the engine and propeller spinner in addition to three distinct sequential gouges consistent with propeller blade impact gouges outboard of the engine. The left engine impact point showed one 3 ft gouge adjacent to where the left propeller spinner impacted. The wreckage was examined at the accident site, and all major components and flight control surfaces were accounted for at the scene. The fuselage, cockpit and instrumentation were consumed by postimpact fire. The throttle quadrant exhibited severe thermal damage. All six of the engine power, propeller and mixture controls were located in their most aft position. The flight controls in the cockpit and all flight control surface attachment points remained attached. Flight control cable continuity of the ailerons, elevator and rudder was established from each of the respective control surfaces to the cockpit. The flaps remained attached to the wings and were in the retracted position and the cockpit flap control was found in the up position. The fuel selector handles, and fuel selector valves for their respective engines/fuel tanks were found in the on position. Both fuel tanks were breached during the impact The main landing gear was found in the up and stowed position. The landing gear control in the cockpit was damaged by impact and fire and its position could not be determined. The left engine was attached to all its mounts and found attached to the left wing in an upright position. It exhibited impact and postimpact fire damage. All cylinders remained attached to the crankcase. The engine could not be rotated by hand. The spinner remained attached to the flange and was crushed and split open on the bottom side where it rested on the ground. The top of the spinner was relatively intact. The three-blade propeller hub was fractured by impact forces. Two of the blades detached from the hub. The remaining blade was discovered in a near neutral position and it exhibited, several gouges, leading edge scrapes and was curled inward. The right engine detached from the firewall and was discovered 3 ft forward of the right wing in an upside-down position. It exhibited impact and postimpact fire damage. All cylinders remained attached to the crankcase. The engine could not be rotated by hand. The spinner was torn from the flange in multiple locations and was partially connected. The three-blade propeller hub assembly was severely fractured by impact forces. Two of the blades detached from the hub. The remaining blade exhibited bending and twisting deformation as well as chordwise scraping and leading edge damage. The four remaining propeller blades were recovered at the scene in various locations around the wreckage site with one of the blades striking a vehicle. One of the blades exhibited little damage and was relatively free of leading edge damage or gouging. The remaining blades showed bending, twisting deformation, scraping and leading edge gouges. The airplane was recovered and retained for additional examination.
2019.08.01 12:45 ScottRevereDel Mar Thursday 8/1/19
I've recently started writing a weekly Thursday handicapping article for a fan-run site called The Daily Gallop. I know there have been some requests for more analysis/content on this sub, so I thought I would share. My piece is below, but I'd recommend checking out the site for other cappers' opinions across different tracks, as well as a few Handicapping 101 articles. http://thedailygallop.net/del-mar-racing-analysis-thursday-august-1-2019-by-caleb-knight/ Race 1: 6½ Furlongs. Clm 20000n3L Picks: 4-5-7-6 We start the day with an evenly matched group of 8 in a claiming race for nonwinners of 3 lifetime. #4 Vander Kelen is the lukewarm 5/2 favorite. The 4-year-old gelding is a versatile runner, able to win on the lead or from off the pace, and has enough tactical speed to make his own trip. Finishing third against tougher in his last two races in starter allowance company, the drop to claiming N3L ranks makes him a major threat here. Cedillo and Glatt are 3/7 when teaming up, including a perfect 2 for 2 at this meet. #5 An Ocala Ten was very promising as a 2-year-old and sent straight to the G2 Best Pal stakes after breaking his maiden. Something went wrong there, and he headed to the bench for a nearly 2-year layoff. He may have needed a race first off the bench, and his last was a much better effort. No reason to think he won’t keep improving, but he truly may not want much longer than 5.5f. #7 Satori has not done much racing in his career, with only 4 starts to his name despite being a 5-year-old, but he has managed to snag 2 wins within those 4 starts. He looked all but beaten in his last race after setting a contested pace between horses and being passed in the turn, but dug in super gamely to retake the lead deep in the stretch. #6 Union Rebel took a while to figure things out, needing 16 tries to break his maiden, but appears to be improving a bit since switching back to dirt and going to the Hanson barn. Needs others to misfire but has an outside shot. Race 2: 5 Furlongs (Turf) Clm 40000 Picks: 4-2-6-1 #4 Rocky Policy makes her Del Mar debut for Andrew Lerner. Lerner may not start a ton of horses, but he spots his stable very well, hitting at 32% this year. He was 2 for 3 in turf races at Del Mar last year, and is already 1 for 4 (3/4 ITM) at the summer meet so far. Ignore the G3 stakes that was washed off the turf and this mare fits, especially given the class drop from allowance/optional claiming into straight claiming today. #2 G Q Covergirl projects to be the one to catch early. After winning 3 of her first 4 starts on dirt, the connections curiously switch her to turf, where she has since gone 1 for 8 (6 for 8 hitting the board). Claimed last out by O’Neill, she enters here in the open claiming ranks for the first time. While hard to fully endorse as she has flopped as chalk in her last 4 races, she can be somewhat forgiven as she was keeping some tough company. Third off the layoff and now with a new barn, look for her early and see if she can hang on late. #6 Point Hope makes her fourth start here in the US after being beaten by a few of today’s rivals in her last few races. Her US debut was a respectable third, but she has trended downwards in form since then. Cutting back to a sprint after the failed route experiment and entered for a tag for the first time, this filly must be respected due to connections, but would need to find her overseas form to compete here. Race 3: 1 Mile Mdn 61k Picks: 6-4-5-3 #6 Scarlet shows up as the somewhat surprising 9/5 morning line favorite despite being beaten by 2 of today’s opponents. After failing to show much in her first two races, she appeared to wake up when going long last out, fading late to lose by slightly over a length after setting an honest pace. Bejarano sticks, and second time routing is often a great improvement angle for young horses. She has the pedigree for a router, and I love the series of 6-furlong stamina building workouts after fading in her June 9th race. Dangerous. #4 Song of the Night may be overlooked due to a pair of losses at lesser known tracks, but the speed figures and thorographs for this 3-year-old have come back strong. Bred to run all day, she makes her first start for Golden Gate ace trainer Jonathan Wong and picks up the services of hall of fame rider Mike Smith. Smith doesn’t often ride in maiden races at this stage of his career, so him landing on this horse indicates she could very well be live. #5 Pink Scatillac has not shown much in her first 2 starts to date on the turf, but the results aren’t as bad as they seem. Despite a turfy pedigree, she is a half sister to G1 Cotillion winner It Tiz Well, suggesting perhaps dirt will be her preferred surface. She was clearly too keen last out in blinkers, setting wicked fractions in a race that completely fell apart, and the far outside draw did her no favors with the relatively short run into the first turn. Hood comes off here, and if she takes to the dirt, she could be dangerous at a price. #3 Loving Moment is a logical contender, but at a short price she might be one to play against. A repeat of her race 2 back likely wins this, but she was badly beaten 22 lengths as an odds on favorite last out. Los Alamitos is a unique track, so perhaps she did not care for the tight turns, but tough to keep giving this one chances. D’Amato barn has been cold this meet, only 1 for 25, which does not inspire confidence. Race 4: 1 Mile (Turf) [F]Clm 50000 Picks: 3-6-9-5 #3 Sophie Antoinette makes her debut for Wong after being privately acquired from Rodolphe Brisset. While she has not been keeping the strongest company and took a while to break her maiden, I love the progression this horse has shown through her 4-year-old season. She has continued to improve on thorographs and paired her last top, indicating a likely move forward. She is somewhat pace dependent, and Del Mar has been atypically kind to early speed on the lawn lately, but hopefully the addition of blinkers gets her more involved early. Making her first start in California at Del Mar, she is eligible for the ship and win program, meaning she receives an additional 40% of whatever purse money she would normally stand to receive. This incentivizes trainers to have their shippers ready to fire, as the bonus is only available in their first local start. #6 Miss Flawless makes her debut for Peter Eurton. Overmatched in two G3 stakes, she ran a decent third and fourth in her last two races and now gets the second leading turf rider of the meet on board. The Miller barn was ice cold the final months of Santa Anita post-race day medication changes, so she could be better than her last few indicate. #9 Red Bunting can’t be as bad as she looked in her last two. The granddaughter of Galileo, her US debut sprinting was likely nothing more than a leg stretcher, and she came up empty in her last race where the first two finishers were 1-2 around the track for the entire race. Gets significant class relief, and Talamo retakes the mount for his father-in-law Ellis. Race 5: 5½ Furlongs Clm 20000 Picks: 8-4-2-6 #8 Time for Suzzie gets reunited with Bejarano for this 5.5 furlong contest. A favorable outside draw, she should sit a good stalking trip just off the leaders and make her move turning for home. Still trying to find her niche on the class ladder, she won each of the last 2 times she was dropping to the claiming ranks of 20000 and 25000. #4 Naughty Tiger has muddied form in recent starts, and the quarter horse race is likely to scare bettors away. However, this horse was very impressive in breaking her maiden last year and ran in nothing but nongraded stakes races in her next 4 starts, winning one of them. She is a perfect 1 for 1 at this track and 2 for 2 at this distance, and now gets reunited with Fuentes who was aboard for both victories last year. Could prove tough to run down on the front end. #2 Bam Bams Lil River figures to attract support due to her early speed and consistency, but she has been beaten by a number of today’s foes multiple times. All due respect to Knapp, who is a very good 21% first off the claim, but one has to question if he can turn this filly around when Hollendorfer could not. She does return to her best distance of 5.5 furlongs, and Asa Espinoza sticks after the barn change, so perhaps her fortunes will change today. Race 6: 13/8 Mile (Turf) OC 40000n1x Picks: 6-5-4-7 #6 Unapologetic is the top selection in this lengthy turf marathon. With 2 wins at this distance and other wins up to a mile and a half, he is one of the few horses in this field for whom the distance should not pose a challenge. Ever an honest horse, his last two efforts can be excused, as he was chasing slow paces going at a distance shorter than his best. The April 28th optional claiming race was loaded with stakes types, as Marckies Water went on to win the G2 Charlie Wittingham and run second in the G2 Eddie Read stakes. Stretching back out to 11 furlongs against easier competition should help him find his way back to the winner’s circle. #5 Twentytwentyvision looms a threat due to the likelihood of him inheriting an easy lead due to a distinct lack of early pace. The 8-year-old gelding’s best days are likely behind him, and I truly don’t think he wants to go this far, but if Bejarano can get him to relax out front and walk the dog he could steal this race. #4 Red King is in career form right now after going to the D’Amato barn, getting his first graded stakes placing last out when third in the San Juan Capistrano at Santa Anita. By strong turf sire English Channel and out of an AP Indy dam, the 5-year-old chestnut should be able to run for days. However, his one run style will likely leave him with a lot to do turning for home and puts him at a distinct disadvantage in this paceless affair. D’Amato has been ice cold this meet, and Red King is winless in 5 starts at Del Mar. He’s a logical contender, but one of the more vulnerable favorites. Race 7: 1 Mile [F]MC 20000 Picks: 7-1-9-4 The final race of the day is a rough one, dipping all the way down to the maiden claiming 20000 level. #7 Gallantlystreaming is the tepid top selection. At these low levels, horses often struggle to pass, leading to a higher percentage of wire to wire winners than other class levels. Despite not threatening in her first two starts on dirt, she got bold on the lead when stretched out last race and was only caught late on a day when stalkers had an advantage and no horse went gate to wire all day. In this uninspiring field, hard to ignore Miller and his incredible 42% win rate this meet. #1 Cat’s Desire has improved in each of her last 3 starts, and seems to be on the right track since being stretched out to 8 furlongs. It’s worth noting that in each of her last 3 races she set or pressed very fast paces, so she brings a lot of early foot to the table here with the rail draw. There is some other speed here, and after going 0 for 10 it’s fair to stop giving her chances for a barn having a tough year, but one more move forward puts here in the mix. #9 Archana is an obvious contender. This daughter of Into Mischief was a nonthreatening third last out, but ran well pressing a fast pace in her only other dirt race, finishing second as the odds-on favorite. Wong is still searching for his first win at Del Mar this meet, and has a decent chance here in a weak field. Running poorly in both turf tries, #4 Hilltop Harmony was a well beaten second in her only start on dirt. Maybe dirt is her preferred surface so far; in this field full of hopeless horses, one could do worse than to take a flier on a lightly raced horse by a strong sire making her second attempt on dirt.
2019.04.19 16:20 aspen222Preview of the Charles Town Classic and more
With the Kentucky Derby now just two weeks away, and all the major prep races over, this week we will be focusing our attention on the older horse division as our highlighted race of the week will be the $1 million Charles Town Classic at the “bull ring” Charles Town Racetrack in West Virginia. The three turn, nine furlongs contest drew a field of 10 with one AE. Elsewhere, we will head to beautiful Keeneland Race Course in Kentucky for a look at the Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes, a marathon turf race for four year olds and up, fillies and mares. We will also be looking at the Federico Tesio Stakes for three year olds, a traditional prep race for the Preakness Stakes, at Laurel Park. We end this week at Santa Anita for a glance at the Kona Gold Stakes, a 6 ½ furlong dash for four year old and up sprinters. Saturday, April 20, 2019 Keeneland Race Course Race: 9 (5:30 PM EST Post) Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes Zulu Alpha has won five of his last eight dating back to last August including back to back Grade: 2’s at Gulfstream in January and March. This six year old gelding is in career form right now and, with rain being forecasted in Kentucky on Saturday, he can handle “give” in the ground……………………….The late running Bigger Picture looms a threat in just about any turf race you put him in. Although he somewhat disappointed last time out, if he runs back to either of his two previous races, he will be tough to beat in this spot. That said, although he is an 11 time winner on the turf, it must be noted he is just 2 for his last 11 overall and 0 for 3 on the Keeneland turf course…………………Soglio is a five year old by Scat Daddy that is as consistent as the day is long as he’s hit the board in 10 of his last 13 starts. Albeit, he has only won three of those last 13 races, note he was charging hard, late, behind Zulu Alpha two races back and when the dust settled, he missed by just a half a length….figures bang up here……………Honorable Mentions: You know this is a tough race when I have to put Red Knight, who is six for nine on the turf in his career, this far down. How often, in a 1 ½ mile race, can you say a horse is cutting back in distance? Well, this son of Pure Prize is as he is coming off a two mile win in the H. Allen Jerkens at Gulfstream last time out…………..Tiz a Slam won a couple of Stakes races north of the border last summer, then showed speed and tired late vs. Canadian Grade: 1 runners in the fall. Five year old by Tiznow should improve off his 2019 debut in February and I won’t be shocked if he outruns this rating…………………….Even though his rider and trainer (both winning at 4%) are ice cold right now, your long shot horse is clearly Vettori Kin. This good looking six year old showed little in his 2019 debut but improved greatly his second time out. If he improves again in this spot, and I suspect he might with this being his third start off the layoff, he could be a menace at what should be some long odds. Charles Town Racetrack Race: 11 (5:37 PM EST Post) Charles Town Classic Diamond King could not have looked any better in beating mid-level optionals at Gulfstream in his 2019 debut, his prep race for this. This son of Quality Road blew that race to smithereens with a :24.1 internal fraction when taking command leaving the half mile pole (in :46.2), opened up on the field at the six furlong marker (1:10.3) and cruised home a 3+ length winner. No published works since is a bit of a concern but the fact that Castellano sees fit to take the leg up and his 5 for 11 lifetime mark are a good trade off……………………..Unbridled Juan always fires his best shot as his impressive 25 on the board finishes in 29 career races would indicate. I am expecting more of the same in this spot……………………….Runnin’toluvya owns this oval. This obscurely bred speedster sports a record of 11 wins and 2 seconds in 14 tries over it, including being 2 for 2 at this rare, three turn distance. His prep race for this should set him up well for a good effort here and the last time he went nine furlongs on this “bull ring” track, he ran the last furlong in :13 seconds flat. If he repeats that race here, he could be a menace……………………Honorable Mentions: Mongolian Groom could be ready to ambush this field. This $12,000 son of Hightail seems to be very quietly improving. After he beat an allowance field two back, he surprised a lot of people when finishing third at 53-1 in the Santa Anita Handicap behind the streaking Gift Box and the talented McKinzie. He meets no such rivals here………………………With this being his third start off a layoff and firing a bullet half mile last week, Nanoosh is another who is setup to run very well in this spot. No surprise if he is “hanging and banging” in deep stretch of this race……………………………..Couple of other side notes in this race: Rally Cry hails from the powerhouse PletcheJohnny V. tag team. This son of Uncle Mo will only be making his third start in the last 18 months but it must be noted he has chased the likes of Gun Runner, Diversify and Yoshida in the past and didn’t do all THAT badly……..I have no idea what to do with War Story as his inconsistencies can make you nuts………………I’m not a big fan of Imperative either but this is his favorite surface……..Something Awesome has been something awful so far this year but does have the back class to run well. Laurel Race Course Race: 10 (5:42 PM EST Post) Federico Tesio Stakes This race might be the one of easiest ones we’ll see all year. It’s so easy, I almost passed on doing it but I didn’t because I want to make sure you folks know about Alwaysmining, who is 6 for 7 at Laurel and 0 for 4 everywhere else. I know this son of Stay Thirsty looks like the logical “Horse for the Course” angle play, but I believe it goes further than that. This colt seems to have turned the corner in his career back in October and since, has rattled off five straight wins, including three by lopsided margins and four in Stakes races. With rain being projected on Saturday in Maryland, there is no worries about him handling an off track as he’s done it twice before. There is no such thing as a sure thing, but this gelding looks about as close as you can get to one…….next stop for him? Preakness Stakes……………As for the rest of this field, play “Pin the tail on the Donkey”. That said, I’ll take Majid for the place spot as, although taking a serious class hike, he has improved through all four career starts. Further improvement expected here………………..I’ll take Bozzini for the “show dough”. This ‘Miah trainee will also be taking a big step up in class but has run very well in both starts on this oval. …………….Honorable Mentions: If the rains stay away, take a look at Trifor Gold as well. This bay gelding also seems to be improving and has run well in two of three fast track starts but not well at all on either off track tries. Santa Anita Park Race: 5 (6PM EST Post) Kona Gold Stakes Dr. Dorr might be better known as Game Winner’s workmate in the mornings more than anything else. That said, this talented six year old chased a runaway winner in his last which was also his 2019 debut. Last year, in his last several races, he chased the likes of Accelerate (twice) Catalina Cruiser and Diversify……he meets no such rivals here, sports an impressive 9-5-2-0 record on this surface and is 2 for 2 at this distance… ……………………..Although Kanthaka hasn’t won a horse race of any kind in almost a full calendar year, he still figures close in this race. This $140,000 son of Jimmy Creed finished right behind Dr. Dorr last time out and valiantly chased two time Champion Sprinter Roy H in his prior. Clearly looks next best in this spot…………………………..The well named All Out Blitz ran very well two back while finishing a close up fifth in the Razorback Handicap, then came with a brazen, five wide run on the turn to win a Stakes race at Sunland Park at this distance in his last. Looks best of the rest in this short field of five. By: Gerard Apadula Director of Equine Operations and Development Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) 2019- Record: 24-78 = 31% 2018- Record: 107-261= 41% 2017- Record: 92-235 = 39% 2016- Record: 91-229 = 40% 2015- Record: 67-180 = 37% 2014- Record: 29-73 = 40% 2013- Record: 20-59= 34% 2012 -Record: 24-73= 33% 2011 –Record: N/A 2010- Record: 24-74= 33% Little Bets N’ Pieces ***** Catholic Boy, a Grade: 1 winner on the turf and dirt last year, is targeting the $250,000 Dixie Stakes on the Preakness Day undercard May 18 at Pimlico for his 4 year old debut, said majority owner Robert LaPenta. Catholic Boy, who won the Travers Stakes and the Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes, won three of six starts last year and has career earnings of $1,842,000. The ridgling by More Than Ready has been training at Bridlewood Farm in Florida and worked four furlongs in :50 1/5 last Saturday. "Jonathan sent me some videos of Catholic Boy working, and he looks phenomenal," said LaPenta. "The Dixie will be the comeback race if all goes well." LaPenta also mentioned Coal Front, who won the March 30 Godolphin Mile, has returned to the United States and will get a few weeks rest at WinStar Farm near Versailles, KY before returning to training and then the races, with the June 8 Met Mile at Belmont Park as his main goal . "Todd likes to give his horses some time to decompress after racing in Dubai, and Coal Front just got back to the United States (April 9). He'll get some time at WinStar, and the Met Mile is on our calendar," LaPenta said. ***\* Champion Female Sprinter La Verdad foaled a Curlin filly at Darley in Lexington Apr. 5. The 11 time Stakes, who earner of over $1.5 million on the racetrack, produced last year’s top priced filly at Keeneland November Sales. Her weanling by Tapit brought $800,000 from Mandy Pope’s Whisper Hill Farm and Three Chimneys. Owner Sheila Rosenblum said, “We are extremely pleased with the foal and the care she is receiving at Darley. Several prominent horsemen have told me that she is a standout. La Verdad holds a special place in my heart. I am looking to provide every opportunity to have her become as influential a producer as she was a racemare, having bred her to Medaglia d’Oro, Tapit, and Curlin.” The 9-year-old mare is currently booked to be bred back to Into Mischief. **** Maximus Mischief, the winner of last year's Grade: 2 Remsen Stakes, has been retired from racing due to a soft tissue injury. Trained by Butch Reid, the absolutely gorgeous, $340,000 Fasig-Tipton purchase will be “shopped around” stud farms in Kentucky in search of his new home. “It’s a real shame,” said Chuck Zacney, whose Cash is King Stables owns the horse in partnership with Glenn Bennett’s LC Racing. “We had high hopes for this horse. It’s a tough sport, a tough game.” “Quite frankly, it’s a tendon tear,” Zacney said. “We went to vets and looked at it and they said he would need a minimum of six to nine months off. Then there would be training after that. We had already been getting calls from farms in Kentucky, so we had to make a choice between retiring him and trying to get him back racing. It was very unlikely that he would come back to his old status; it was highly unlikely he’d be as good. They said he’d be maybe 80 to 90% of what he was and it would not have been fair to do that to the horse.” “We had raised the possibility that he might race again,” Zacney said. “Now that that is off the table, we’re hearing again from farms in Kentucky and looking forward to finding him a nice home there and him having a great breeding career there.” Maximus Mischief is currently at Eisaman Equine in Ocala, FL.
2019.03.01 17:55 aspen222Preview of the Fountain of Youth Stakes and more
Our focus will be at Gulfstream Park once again this week as our highlighted race will be the $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes for three year olds going a mile and a sixteenth. The entire card at Gulfstream is very strong as they will be running a whopping nine Graded Stakes races of which we will be examining five. Although I won’t be breaking down either race, keep an eye on the eighth race at Santa Anita today (Friday) as, although it’s a “non winner other than,” it has enough talent in it to be a Stakes race. Trainer Bob Baffert sends out mega talents Dessman and Roadster, while John Sadler’s Nolo Contesto, who drew the rail, also seems to have ability. Also on Saturday at Santa Anita, Baffert will fire another missile from his arsenal in Flor De La Mar, a gargantuan filly who actually outworked Dessman in the mornings more than once and could not have looked any better in decimating maidens in her initial race last month. Before moving forward and, since this will be read by thousands of you, my friend Trimi75 over at Reddit has been trying to remember a filly or mare from just a few years ago who swished her tail every time her jockey hit her left handed a la McKenzie. She was ridden by Mike Smith and pretty sure she was trained by Bob Baffert. Any help would be greatly appreciated. Saturday, March 2, 2019 Gulfstream Park Race: 5 (1:30 PM EST Post) Canadian Turf Stakes Hembree has developed into a very nice turf horse over the past year, highlighted by winning a Grade: 2 race in Canada last fall. It looks like this handsome son of Proud Citizen is picking up where he left off as he came from last, and some 10 lengths behind at the half mile pole, to zoom past the field and win his 2019 debut (the El Prado Stakes). Big work Feb 4 followed up by a maintenance drill last week signals to me he is sitting on another big effort and he’ll face many of the same rivals he beat in the El Prado…………………….Being by War Front, I’m not sure why it took the powerhouse team of McGaughey/Phipps so long to put Breaking the Rules on the turf. But since, this dark bay colt who is 4 for 8 in his career, has won two impressively including the Tropical park Derby last time out…..looms a major threat here…………………..Cowboy Culture closed well, late, to beat $50,000 claimers on New Year’s Day. He then came back and was absolutely flying down the stretch (again) but was impeded late and had to settle for fourth (but was “put up” to third), less than two lengths, behind Hembree in the El Prado….another threat, especially with a clean trip………………Honorable Mentions: Krampus was also impeded late in the El Prado, and also finished right behind Hembree. Gelding by Shakespeare has hit the board in 9 of 12 turf starts also………….Siem Riep probably needed his race in the El Prado in his last. Five year old by Tapit has speed, draws the rail and should be “tighter” for this (My play: $1 trifecta box all 5. Cost $60.00) Race: 6 (2:00PM EST Post) Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes Quijote was visually impressive powering down the lane while pulling off a major upset (23-1) in the Sunshine Millions Sprint last time out. Ignore his race two back as it was on the synthetics and note he won by 6+ lengths three back. Colt by Pomeroy is sharp right now, shows a bullet five furlong work last week (1:00.1) and a 25% Irad Ortiz Jr. gets the leg up…………………..After winning the Gravesend Stakes at Aqueduct two back, then chasing (second) the supremely talent World of Trouble last time out, Recruiting Ready also seems to be in good form right now. Colt by Algorithms has speed, draws the rail (the rail is winning at a 20% clip) and also shows a big work last week….figures bang up…………………. ..Storm Advisory outran his odds in his last two vs. Graded Stakes runners on this oval. This veteran seven year old will be making his 54th start in this spot and, most importantly, he gets back to his best game (sprinting)……………….Honorable Mentions: Sweetontheladies is 0 for his last 13, dating back two years but his last two races weren’t bad including finishing within shouting distance of Quijote two starts back……………Santiamen just missed two starts back, then chased the speedy X Y Jet in his last. You get an underrated Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle and the third start off the layoff angle as well. (My play: $1 trifecta box using all 5. Cost $60.00) Race: 12 (5:01 PM EST Post) Davona Dale Stakes Off of back to back tour de force wins in the Grade:1 Frizette Stakes at Belmont Park and the Grade: 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly Juvenile, 2018 Two Year Old Filly Champion Jaywalk makes her 2019, three year old debut in this spot. Gray filly by Cross Traffic has excellent early speed and gets a tactical advantage by drawing the rail. Albeit, she is looking at bigger races down the road, she has been training very well and is hard to go against in this spot. “She not a big, robust filly, so we didn’t expect a big physical change. But, mentally, she’s matured quite a bit and is training very well. I am very happy with where she is now,” trainer John Servis said. “It’s been a long few months since (the Breeders’ Cup) November. Everyone is chafing at the bit to see her run. The freshening at Hidden Brook Farms has done her some good mentally, and she’s come back and trained great. She’s ready to run.”………………Champagne Anyone was charging hard, late in the Forward Gal Stakes in her last on Feb 2. Logical contender with the stretch out in distance in this spot and she might have a fitness edge over the rest as she is one of only three fillies in this race to have had a start in 2019………………………..Cookie Dough was visually impressive decimating Restricted Stakes fields in her last two to end 2018. Filly by Brethren will be coming off a four month layoff but has been training lights out for this her 2019 debut…………………….Honorable Mentions: High Regard has yet to run a bad race through six career starts. Good looking filly by Will Take Charge may not have cared for the sloppy track in her last start of 2018 and this distance seems to hit her right between the eyes……………..Bold Script is another who hasn’t run a bad race yet as her 5-2-1-2 career record would indicate. Oddly enough, this gray filly by wide spectrum sire Speightstown will be making her first dirt start here but is still another who is training very well of late. (My play: $1 trifecta box using all 5. Cost $60.00) Race: 13 (5:32 PM EST Post) Fountain of Youth Stakes On the Road to the 2019 Kentucky Derby, there is not another horse that intrigues me more than Hidden Scroll. This gorgeous, rather small colt by the equally gorgeous Hard Spun, ran one of the most impressive debut races I’ve ever seen in my almost 40 years of being involved in this sport. On Jan 26, this colt blew the gate and ripped through torrid early fractions (:22.2, :44.4 and 1:09.2) on his way to annihilating a maiden field while winning by 14 lengths and registering a towering 104 Beyer Speed Figure. For those of you who follow them, he also registered a mind boggling -2 Ragozin number. This Bill Mott trainee finished a mile in an outstanding 1:34.4 while basically being eased up on in deep stretch. I had to watch the race a few times to wrap my head around such a colossal effort. Of course, the elephant in the room is he did that on a sloppy track, which in turn begs the question; can he repeat that performance on a fast track?……………………..Although Vekoma will be making his first start in 118 days, he showed serious ability while winning his first two career races in New York. Chestnut colt by Candy Ride, who “swims” a little when he runs, whistled six furlongs in 1:08.4 in September, then came back about six weeks later to take down the Grade: 2, one mile Nashua Stakes in an excellent 1:36.3, proving he can carry his wealth of speed. Two other items I noted…he’ll go first time Lasix here and he ran a hole in the wind over the notoriously deep Palm Beach Downs Training Track last week, signaling readiness………………….Signalman might be your post time favorite in this spot and if he is, I’m going to try to beat him. Colt by General Quarter completely outran his 67-1 odds while making up a ton of ground late in chasing two year old colt champion Game Winner in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race in November. This Ken McPeek trainee then came back about three weeks later and overcame traffic trouble to gamely win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs…figures among the vanguard at the end of this one……………….Honorable Mentions: Global Campaign is a half brother to the super talented Bolt d’Oro. By Curlin, this colt beat maidens in his initial journey then came back to whip first level allowance foes while being “wrapped up” late both times. We have clearly not seen the best of this colt by any stretch and, at this point, there is no telling how good he is. We should find out more come Saturday……………………After winning his debut and then finishing a very good second in the Grade: 1 Champagne Stakes in just his second career starts, Code of Honor’s last race was too bad to be true. It’s clear that trainer Shug McGaughey backed off of him and “rebooted” so to speak. Albeit this colt is a stretch runner, so him drawing the rail hurts his chances, I am expecting a bounce back performance off his abysmal 2019 debut where he was a fading fourth, beaten by almost eight lengths………….Epic Dreamer set a fast pace in the Holy Bull last time out and had every excuse to cave in late but he did not. In fact, this son of Orb held very well late while checking in fourth but was only beaten by 2+ lengths….figures prominent early here and could be tough in the late stages once again…………….If you are hunting for a long shot in this race, take a look at Union’s Destiny, who blew the doors off of maidens back in August then ran sneaky good in the Smooth Air Stakes in December. Note the speed figure in the Smooth Air as it states he can contend vs. these. (My play: $1 trifecta box using the top 5. Cost $60.00) Race: 14 (6:06 PM EST Post) Mac Diarmida Stakes The well named Zulu Alpha appears to be a late bloomer as he’s won three of his last four and four of his last six dating back to last year. I love the way he split horses at the top of the stretch and went on to take the Grade: 3, W. L. Mc Knight last time out on this turf course. He’s trained well since, his speed figures are on the rise, he handles any footing and Ortiz Jr. takes the reins……looks best…………………Although at first glance Melmich looks like a one dimensional synthetics beast, having hit the board an astounding 34 times in 39 races over it including 17 wins, his last race on the turf was excellent. This Canadian, eight year old son of Wilko was last at the half mile pole but catapulted past eight horses and made up eight lengths in the last 4 ½ furlongs to finish a close up third vs. a Restricted Stakes field on this surface. Although he’ll be taking a big step up in class here, that race proven a) he can run effectively on the grass and b) he likes this surface…..figures close……………………….After wiring the field in the Grade:1 Turf Classic at Belmont last September, I think the connections of Channel Maker got a little carried away with themselves when throwing him in there vs. superstar filly Enable in the Breeders’ Cup Turf on November then putting him in the Pegasus World Turf Cup in his last two races. Although this gelding by English Channel has been plagued with inconsistencies throughout his career and is 0 for 3 on this turf course, the fact still remains he is taking an enormous drop in class, to a much more reasonable spot, here…………………….Honorable Mentions: Montclair has a very good year last year while beating up on lesser and winning four of eight starts up and down the East Coast. His speed figures are in the same zip code as some of the top contenders in this race and you get the third start off the layoff angle as well…………………..Hunter O’Riley quietly ran a huge ran in his last. This bay gelding had a tough trip (bumped and wide on the turn) but was less than five lengths behind Alpha Zulu in the W.L McKnight, which was his first start in 275 days. The son of Tiz Wonderful should be tighter for this and he has a good amount of “back class”…no surprise if he runs well on Saturday afternoon………………………..Vettori Kim will be making his first start since last summer but he too has back class and has been training forwardly. (My play: $1 trifecta box using the top 5. Cost: $60.00) By: Gerard Apadula Director of Equine Operations and Development Knights of the Round Stable Thoroughbred Racing Team [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) 2019- Record: 14-37 = 38% (My Plays: -$526.36) 2018- Record: 107-261= 41% 2017- Record: 92-235 = 39% 2016- Record: 91-229 = 40% 2015- Record: 67-180 = 37% 2014- Record: 29-73 = 40% 2013- Record: 20-59= 34% 2012 -Record: 24-73= 33% 2011 –Record: N/A 2010- Record: 24-74= 33% Little Bets N’ Pieces **** Champion Abel Tasman has arrived safely in Ireland and will be bred to leading sire Galileo, Coolmore announced last Friday. The powerhouse racing and breeding operation broke news of the mating on Twitter after acquiring the six time Grade: 1 winner in January, when they went to $5 million at the Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale. **** Maximus Mischief, the very handsome winner of last year’s Remsen Stakes, has been taken off the Triple Crown trail because of a soft-tissue injury to his right front leg that surfaced after a workout Feb. 24 at Gulfstream Park. “I’m very disappointed. I was hoping for a Derby horse and to share the experience with my son for really the first time,” said Chuck Zacney. “It has been really, really precious.” Zacney’s son Alex, who is 19, was the namesake for Afleet Alex, the Preakness and Belmont stakes winner in 2005 that was the first horse his father owned. Jockey Jose Ortiz reported something was amiss after he worked the colt four furlongs in :49 flat seconds in what was supposed to be their final work before Saturday’s Fountain of Youth Stakes. Oritz pulled the horse up after the work and did not gallop out at the end. Plans call for Maximus Mischief to be sent from Gulfstream to Eisaman Equine near Ocala, Fla., where he will undergo further evaluation and be given ample time to recuperate. **** Super mare Winx is aiming for the March 2 Chipping Norton Stakes at Royal Randwick as her next engagement. The now eight year old daughter of Street Cry claimed her 30th straight win just last week in the Feb. 16 Star Apollo Stakes. “What you see is what you get with her. She is just a class act,” the mare’s trainer, Chris Waller said. “People are understanding how hard it is to win 30 in a row. You don’t do it by being the best horse on one day, but by being the best over three or four years. She has overcome track conditions, barrier draws, slow starts, wide runs you name it—that’s Winx.” ***** 2017 champion turf male World Approval has been retired from racing. The 7-year-old gelding by Northern Afleet, who won the 2017 Breeders’ Turf Cup Mile, will take up residence at Live Oak Stud in Ocala, Fla. World Approval will reside in an adjoining paddock to multiple Graded Stakes winning siblings Revved Up and Za Approval. “How lucky we have been at Live Oak Stud/Plantation to have championed such a winning family,” said Charlotte Weber, owner of Live Oak Plantation. “I am proud and privileged to have experienced this Sport of Kings with such outstanding racehorses and shall protect them as we grow older together.” All told, the almost white horse won 10 stakes, eight of them Graded, and earned $3,062,363.
On February 27, 2018, about 1930 eastern standard time, a Quest Kodiak 100, N969TB, was substantially damaged after it impacted a river near Georgetown, Florida. The private pilot and pilot-rated passenger were fatally injured. The airplane was registered to and operated by an individual as a 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91 personal flight. Night visual meteorological conditions prevailed, and there was no flight plan filed for the flight, which was destined for Mount Royal Airport (3FL0), Welaka, Florida. According to preliminary air traffic control data provided by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), a radar target identified as the accident airplane overflew 3FL0 and then proceeded to make a right turn toward and over the Ocala National Forest. It circled back to the airport, overflew it, and entered a left turn. The airplane continued the left turn, again overflew the airport, and impacted a river that was about 1 mile to the west of the airport. According to a witness, the airplane departed 3FL0 on the day of the accident around 1530. Another witness, observed the airplane shortly before the accident and noted that it was flying "really low," and was in a 45 bank left turn, "wobbled" once, and then continued the turn. In addition, she noted that the lights on the airplane had "halos" around them because it was foggy, and that the engine sounded "fine." Local law enforcement and recovery personnel reported that there were no downed tree branches and no down powerlines in the along the shore in the vicinity of the accident site. Furthermore, recovery personnel noted several gallons of Jet A fuel draining from the airplane during recovery. According to FAA records, the pilot held a private pilot certificate with ratings for airplane single-engine land, single-engine sea, multiengine land, multiengine sea, and instrument airplane. The pilot was issued a third-class medical certificate on November 27, 2016. At that time, he reported 3,400 hours of total flight time, of which the 20 hours were within the previous 6 months of the medical examination. According to FAA records, the pilot-rated passenger held an airline transport pilot certificate with ratings for airplane multiengine land and airplane multiengine sea. He held commercial certificate ratings for airplane single-engine land and airplane single-engine sea. In addition, he held a flight instructor certificate with ratings for airplane multiengine and instrument airplane. His most recent second-class medical certificate was issued on October 4, 2013. According to FAA records, the airplane was manufactured in 2016 and issued an airworthiness certificate in April 2016. In addition, it was equipped with a Pratt and Whitney Canada PT6A-34, 750-horsepower engine that powered a 4-bladed Hartzell constant speed propeller. The 1915 recorded weather observation at Palatka Municipal Airport Lt. Kay Larkin Field (28J), Palatka, Florida, which was about 13 miles to the north of the accident location, included wind from 050 at 8 knots, visibility 10 miles, overcast clouds at 1,500 feet above ground level, temperature 17 C, dew point 15 C, and an altimeter setting of 30.25 inches of mercury. The airplane impacted a river and came to rest inverted in about 10 feet of water. All major components of the airplane were recovered from the river except the outboard section of the left wing and the left aileron. The forward section of the fuselage was impact-crushed aft. The right wing was impact separated from the fuselage and when the wing was moved for the wreckage examination, an unquantified amount of jet A fuel drained from the wing. The left wing was impact separated from the fuselage and the left flap was separated from the left wing. The flap jackscrew was measured and corresponded to a full flap position. The empennage remained attached to the fuselage and the horizontal stabilizers and elevators were cut to facilitate recovery. Flight control continuity was obtained from all flight control surfaces to the cockpit through tensile overload breaks and cuts made to facilitate recovery. The propeller remained attached to the reduction gearbox but was separated from the engine. All four propeller blades remained attached to the hub and three were not in the feathered position. Two of the propeller blades exhibited S-bending, the other 2 blades were bent aft, and leading-edge gouging was noted on three of the blades. The engine was impact-separated and recovered from the river. The left exhaust stack was impact crushed and the right exhaust stack received minor impact damage. The reduction gear box chip detector was examined, and no debris was noted. Continuity was confirmed between the compressor turbine and the accessory section of the engine by rotating the compressor turbine. Rotational scoring was noted on the compressor turbine. The power turbine was examined and exhibited rotation scoring on the fir tree disk, the blades, and the leading edge of the shroud tips. In addition, the power turbine shroud exhibited rotational scoring. 3FL0 was a private airport located about 3 miles south of Welaka, Florida. The airport elevation was estimated at 41 feet mean sea level. The airport did not have an operating control tower at the time of the accident. Runway 8/25 was 3,000 ft long and 50 ft wide. There were no published instrument procedures into the airport. The airport was bordered to the west by the Ocala National Forest, which was 673 square miles of densely wooded and unlighted terrain.
2016.06.28 03:08 WheresMyDogCaught with a gram of weed in Florida
Hello, I'm looking for advice for a mistomeanor possession charge of less than 20 grams (.8 to be exact) in Columbia County Florida. Here's my situation: I'm a student at Santa Fe College in Gainesville FL and I was going to Inchetucknee springs which is in Columbia County. During our frustrating adventure to the springs, I was irritated so I was speeding during the last few seconds before the parkinglot. My friend hands me his bag of .8 of marijuana to stash in water proof capsule, I put it on my lap, and the cop walks up to my car as I'm parked. I didn't see him and once I noticed he was a State Park officer he was already at my car. I open my window and he asks why I was speeding. He did NOT clock me and tell me how fast I was going. He saw the marijuana and I claimed it to not be a dick to my friend. He did not search the car luckily but I got a mistomeanor offence of under 20 grams of marijuana. I'm not happy about that. So I called the Saul Goodman of weed charges, David Mengers in Ocala, and he recommended me to someone in Columbia County where I got in trouble. He recommended me to a man named Nick, forgot his last name (pretty bad with names) and he gave me a good free 20 minute talk. He recommended that I go to a rehabilitation center before the court day to prove to the judge that I learned my lesson and that on already clean. He said that that would probably reduce my sentence. I think that's a good idea. But he told me how much it would be and the initial fee is $3000 dollars. FUCK THAT. I'm not willing to spend that money or waste my families money for something as stupid as a small marijuana charge, so I decided I'm not hiring a lawyer. My next option was a public defender, so I called the public defender office in Columbia County and they said the can't give any advice over the phone or ANY time before the court date because of their budget. So no free lawyer advice for me. My college in Santa Fe has a student legal service but does not provide advice for criminal offences. Neither do any of the hired lawyer advice services in Gainesville. University of Florida offers free advice but for enrolled students only. So all those options are trashed awsell. Does anyone have any suggestions on how I can handle this case myself? I really want to get it dropped but it's going to be difficult without professional help. I want to reduce my punishment as much as possible. I don't believe that I should be punished for less than a gram of weed. Any advice would be appreciated. Thanks
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